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欧洲央行先行缩债 美联储今年有望退出QE?

2021-09-10 07:32:31 21世纪经济报道

  欧洲央行先行缩债 美联储今年有望退出QE?

  DANGDISHIJIAN9YUE9RI,OUZHOUYANGXINGXUANBUZUIXINLILVJUEYI,JIANGWEICHISANDAGUANJIANLILVBUBIAN。CIWAI,OUZHOUYANGXINGXUANBU,JIANGYUJINNIANDISIJIDUKAISHIFANGHUANJINJIKANGYIGOUZHAIJIHUA(PEPP)GOUZHAISUDU。

  OUZHOUYANGXINGZAISHENGMINGZHONGBIAOSHI:“GENJUDUIRONGZITIAOJIANHETONGZHANGQIANJINGDELIANHEPINGGU,GUANLIWEIYUANHUIPANDUAN,YUQIANLIANGGEJIDUXIANGBI,SHIDUFANGHUANGOUMAIZICHANDEBUFAYEKEYIWEICHIYOULIDERONGZITIAOJIAN。”

  OUZHOUYANGXINGLVXIANXUANBUSUOJIANGOUZHAIGUIMO,LINGYIQUANQIUZHUYAOYANGXINGMEILIANCHUSHIFOUYEJIANGXUANBUJIESHUCHAOKUANSONGHUOBIZHENGCEYOUQIZHIDEGUANZHU。

  RANER,JUMEILIANCHUZUIXINFABUDEHEPISHUXIANSHI,ZAIGAIBAOGAOFUGAIDE7YUEZHI8YUEQIJIAN,YOUYUDeltaBIANYIDUZHUDAOZHIYIQINGCHUXIANFANDAN,LINGSHEHUIGEJIEDUIGONGZHONGJIANKANGDEDANYOUJIAJU,YINCIMEIGUOJINGJIZENGSULVEYOUFANGHUAN,CHENGWENHEZENGZHANGDEQUSHI。

  YECUNMEIGUOGAOJIJINGJIXUEJIARobert DentDUI21SHIJIJINGJIBAODAOJIZHEBIAOSHI, MEIGUOYINZHONGXINKAIFANGHECAIZHENGCIJIERCHANSHENGDEZENGZHANGSHITOUKENENGYIJINGGUOQU,WEILAIJIGEJIDUZENGZHANGJIANGHUIFANGHUAN。MUQIANFUWUXINGYESHOUDeltaBIANYIDUZHUYINGXIANGJIAODA,XINGYEFUSUKENENGHUIQUYUPINGHUAN,DANBUHUITUOGUI。

  JINGJIFUSUFANGHUANZHIYU,MEIGUOJIUYESHICHANGYEBIAOXIANBUJIA。8YUEFEINONGJIUYEBAOGAOYIWAI“BAOLENG”,LINGCHUNCHUNYUDONGDEMEILIANCHUYALIDOUZENG。JINGUANRUCI,DUOWEIMEILIANCHUGUANYUANBIAOSHI,MEILIANCHUYINGGAIYUJINNIANNEIKAISHISUOJIANZICHANGOUMAIJIHUA。

  经济复苏步伐有所放缓

  HEPISHUXIANSHI,7YUEZHI8YUE,MEIGUOJINGJIZENGZHANGSUDULVEYOUFANGHUAN。QIZHUYAOYUANYINSHIDeltaBIANYIDUZHUMANYANJIAJUGONGZHONGDUIANQUANDEDANYOU,DAOZHIDADUOSHUDIQUDEWAICHUJIUCAN、CHUXING、LVYOUDENGHUODONGJIANSHAO。CIWAI,ZAISHAOSHUDEQINGKUANGXIA,GUOJILVXINGXIANZHIYELINGCHUXINGHUODONGJIANSHAO。

  ZISHENJINRONGXUEJIALIHUIHUIDUI21SHIJIJINGJIBAODAOJIZHEBIAOSHI,MEIGUO7YUEDAO8YUEJINGJIZENGSUFANGHUANZHUYAOYOUSIGEFANGMIANDAOZHI:DeltaBIANYIDUZHUDEMANYANGANRAOLEBUTONGXINGYEDEXIUFUJINCHENG,YIZHILEXIANGDUIYINGDEJINGJIHUODONG,TEBIESHIJIAOYUN、JIAOYU、WENYUDENGFUWUXINGYE;QICI,ZHANGDP70%DELINGSHOUXIAOSHOUZENGSUDIYUYUQI,QICHEJILINGBUJIANXIAOSHOUSHIZHUYAODAOHUOSUO,ERNAIYONGXIAOFEIPINXIAOFEIYEYOUJIANDINGXINHAO;SHANGYESHEBEIDINGDANYEZAISIGEYUEZENGZHANGHOUZAI7YUETINGZHIZENGZHANG,QIYESHANGYEZIBENTOUZIFANGHUAN;GAOJISHUXIAOYING,MEIGUOZAIQUNIANDISANJIDUYIJINGKAISHIFUSU,QUNIANDEGAOJISHUDEXIAOYINGYELADILE7YUEDAO8YUETONGBIZENGSUZHIBIAO。

  ZHONGHANGXINTUOHONGGUANCELVEZONGJIANWUZHAOYINYEDUI21SHIJIJINGJIBAODAOJIZHEQIANGDIAO,MEIGUOJINGJIFANGHUANZHUYAOSHIQUANQIUDISANBOYIQINGDEBAOFAZHIJIEYINGXIANGLEXIAOFEIHEZHIZAOYE。“MUQIANKEYIKANDAO,MEIGUODEZHIZAOYEPMIHEMIXIEGENXIAOFEIZHEXINXINZHISHUDOUZAIXIAJIANG。”

  CIWAI,HEPISHUZHICHU,QITAZENGZHANGFANGHUANHUOHUODONGXIAJIANGDELINGYUSHISHOUZHIYUGONGYINGZHONGDUANHELAODONGLIDUANQUE,BINGBUSHIYUANYUXUQIUPIRUAN。BIRU,QICHEXIAOSHOUPIRUANBEIPUBIANRENWEISHIYOUYUZAICHIXUXINPIANDUANQUEDEQINGKUANGXIAKUCUNJIAODI,ZHUZHAIXIAOSHOUHUODONGSHOUDAOYIZHIZESHIYOUYUGONGYINGBUZU。

  XIAQUFANGMIAN,BOSHIDUNQIYEXIWANGGONGYINGWENTINENGZAI2022NIANDEDAOHUANJIE;KELIFULANBAOGAOGONGYINGXIANZHILEXUDUOGONGSIMANZUXUQIUDUANDENENGLI;RichmondDEQIYEMIANLINGENGGAODECHENGBEN,YINWEIGANGKOUHEKACHEYUNSHULIANGZAIYUANBENJIAOGAODESHUIPINGSHANGJIXUSHANGSHENG,DANZHIZAOSHANGHEFUWULEIQIYEZEMIANLINJIAOHUOQIYANZHANGDEQINGKUANG。

  DALASILIANCHUQIANZHUXIRichard FisherYEQIANGDIAOGONGYINGLIANSHIGEZHONGYAOYINSU。“WOMENDEGONGXUSHIHENG,XUQIUZENGJIA,GONGYINGCHUXIANPINGJING。ZHEIBUHUIZAIDUANQINEIDEDAOHUANJIE。DANGNIKANKANLUOSHANJIDEGANGKOUHUODONG,YIJICONGYAZHOUHUODONGHAIANJINRUWOMENGUOJIADESUOYOUWUPIN,WOXIANGXINZHEIXIEYALIHUIGENGCHIJIU,BUHUIZAIYIYEZHIJIANXIAOSHI。”

  CHULEGONGYINGLIANWENTIZHIWAI,TONGZHANGYELINGMEIGUOJINGJICHENGYA。HEPISHUBIAOSHI,MEIGUOTONGZHANG“WENBUSHANGSHENG”。MEILIANCHU12GEXIAQUZHONGYOUYIBANBAOGAOCHENGCUNZAI“QIANGJING”DETONGZHANGYALI,LINGYIBANZEBIAOSHITONGZHANGYALIJIAOWEI“WENHE”。RANER,XIANGGUANXIJIEXIANSHI,TONGZHANGWENTIZHENGZAIJIAJU。MEILIANCHUQINGLAIDETONGHUOPENGZHANGZHIBIAOXIANSHI,7YUETONGZHANGLVSHANGSHENG3.6%。

  HEPISHUQIANGDIAO,YOUYUPUBIANCUNZAIZIYUANDUANQUEDEQINGKUANG,SHANGYOUJIAGEYALIJIXUCUNZAI。QIYEHAIBIAOSHISHANGYOUDEJIAGEYALIKENENGHUICHUANDAOZHIXIAYOU。

  HEPISHUJINGGAOCHENG,“YIXIEXIAQUBIAOSHI,QIYEYUJIWEILAIJIGEYUEDEXIAOSHOUJIAGEJIANGDAFUSHANGZHANG。”

  WUZHAOYINDUIJIZHEZHICHU,CONGJINGJIZHOUQIZISHENLAIJIANG,MEIGUOCHIXUDETONGZHANGPANSHENGYIJINGDUIJINGJIZENGZHANGZAOCHENGSHANGHAI,BIRUTONGZHANGSHANGSHENGDAOZHIXIAOFEIXIAJIANG,YUANCAILIAOJIAGESHANGZHANGYEDUIZHIZAOYEXINGCHENGFUMIANCHONGJI。

  BUGUO,HEPISHUCHENG,“JINGUANQIYEDUIGONGYINGLIANZHONGDUANHEZIYUANDUANQUERENGPUBIANGANDAODANYOU,DANDADUOSHUXIAQUDEQIYEDUIJINQIQIANJINGRENGCHILEGUANTAIDU。”

  DentZHICHU,“SUIRANZUIJINXINGUANBINGLIJIZENG,DANWOMENKANDAOYUELAIYUEDUOJUBUDADAOFENGZHIDEJIXIANG。YOUYUGONGYINGPINGJINGHEZHONGXINKAIFANGDEYALITUIGAOLESHAOSHUSHANGPINHEFUWUDEJIAGE,TONGHUOPENGZHANGLVRENGGAOYUMEILIANCHU 2%DEMUBIAO,DANWOMENYUJITONGZHANGLVJIANGYU2022NIANFANGHUAN。”

  美国就业市场供需不对称

  HEPISHUFABUZHIJI,MEILIANCHUZHENGZAIKAOLVSHIFOUYAOSHOUJINCHAOKUANSONGDEHUOBIZHENGCE。JUTIERYAN,MEILIANCHUGUANYUANMENZHENGZAIKAOLVZAIJINNIANNIANDIQIANKAISHISUOJIANGOUZHAIGUIMO。MUQIANCHIBAOLIUYIJIANDEMEILIANCHUGUANYUANZHUYAODANYOUJIUYESHICHANGDEBIAOXIAN。

  ZANCHENGBAOLIUZHENGCEDERENZHUYAODANXINJIUYEZHUANGKUANG。SHIYELVYIJIANGZHI5.2%,DANYOUYUDANXINXINGUANBINGDUDEDeltaBIANZHONG,8YUEFENDEGONGZIZENGZHANGDAFUFANGHUAN。

  HEPISHUXIANSHI,MEILIANCHUSUOYOUXIAQUDOUBAOGAOJIUYECHENGZENGZHANGQUSHI,DANFUDUCONG“QINGWEIDAOQIANGJING”BUDENG。SHANGJIERENSHIBIAOSHI,JINGUANGONGZI(YOUQISHIDISHOURURENQUNDEGONGZI)CHUXIANLE“QIANGJING”ZENGZHANG,DANRENGCUNZAI“GUANGFANDELAODONGLIDUANQUE”。

  MEILIANCHUCHENG,“GUZHUMENZHENGZAISHIYONGGENGPINFANDEJIAXIN、JIANGJIN、PEIXUNHELINGHUODEGONGZUOANPAILAIXIYINHELIUZHUYUANGONG。”

  LINGJUMEIGUOLAOGONGBUDEZHIWEIKONGQUEHELAODONGLILIUDONGDIAOCHA(JOLTS),MEIGUO7YUEJINGJIJIEXINGDIAOZHENGHOUDEZHIWEIKONGQUESHULIANGDADAO1093.4WAN,LIANXUDI5GEYUECHUANGXINGAO,GAOYUFactSetYUJIDE990WANHEQIANZHIDE1020WAN。ZHEIYISHUZICHAOGUO7YUE870WANDESHIYEZONGRENSHU。

  JOLTSSHIDANGQIANMEIGUOCAIZHANGYELUNZUIXIAIDELAODONGLISHICHANGZHIBIAO。GAISHUJULVCHUANGXINGAO,BIAOMINGMEIGUOQIYEZAIZHAOGONGFANGMIANRENGMIANLINKUNJING。

  JOLTSDIAOCHASHUJUXIANGDUIFEINONGJIUYESHUJUHUIZHIHOUYIGEYUEFABU。9YUE3RI,MEIGUOLAOGONGBUGONGBUDESHUJUXIANSHI,MEIGUO8YUEFEINONGJIUYEBAOGAO“BAOLENG”。MEIGUO8YUEFEINONGXINZENGJIUYERENSHUJINWEI23.5WAN,YUANDIYU7YUEDE105WANHEYUQIDE73.3WAN,CHUANG2021NIAN1YUEYILAIZUIXIAOZENGFU。8YUESHIYELVWEI5.2%,LVEDIYUQIANZHIDE5.4%,DANYU2020NIAN2YUEXINGUANYIQINGBAOFAZHIQIANXIANGBIRENGRANGAOCHU1.7GEBAIFENDIAN。

  YIBIANSHISHIYELVJUGAOBUXIA,YIBIANSHIQIYEZHAOBUDAOREN,MEIGUOJIUYESHICHANGLUOCHACONGHEERLAI?LIHUIHUIXIANGJIZHEJIESHICHENG,LAODONGLIXUQIUWANGSHENG,ERJIUYESHICHANGPIRUANZHUYAOSHIYOUYULAODONGLIGONGJIBUZU,ERGONGJIBUZUZHUYAOYUANYULAODONGLICANYULVPIRUAN。“YIFANGMIANYOUYUBIANYIBINGDUZAOCHENGXUEXIAOTINGKE,NVXINGDUIYUZHAOGUHAIZIXUQIUZENGJIA,ERNVXINGZHONGFANJIUYESHICHANGYIYUANDIXIA;LINGWAIYIFANGMIANSHIYOUYUBIANYIBINGDUSHIDEZAIGONGZUOHUANJINGZHONGDEGANRANFENGXIANJIAJU,JIANGDILENIANLINGDADELAODONGZHEZHONGFANSHICHANGDEYIYUAN。”

  CIWAI,LIHUIHUIRENWEI,SHIYEBUZHUJIEJINBUFENXINGYEZHOUXINSHUIPING,DUIJUMINGONGZUOYIYUANCHANSHENGLEJIYAZUOYONG,DANSUIZHEZENGQIANGFULITIQIANZHONGZHIYUJIKEYIJISHICHANGTIGONGGENGDUOLAODONGLI。

  WUZHAOYINDUIJIZHEQIANGDIAO,MEIGUOJIUYESHICHANGCHUXIANJIEGOUXINGLUOCHAYEYUYIQINGXIANGGUAN,YIQINGDAOZHIJIUYESHICHANGBULIUCHANG。“YIFANGMIANYOUHUOWURENGAN,LINGYIFANGMIANYOURENMEIHUOGAN。ZHEIZHONGQINGKUANGKENENGHAIYAOYANXUYIDUANSHIJIAN,ZHEIZHONGSHIYEYUJINGJIZHOUQIWUGUAN,SHIWAISHENGCHONGJIZAOCHENGDESHIYE。”

  JINGUANJIUYESHICHANGPIRUAN,DANGONGZIRENGZAISHANGZHANG。GENJU8YUEFEINONGJIUYEBAOGAO,MEIGUO8YUEPINGJUNSHIXINHUANBIZENGZHANG0.6%,GAOYUYUQIDE0.3%HEQIANZHIDE0.4%,TONGBIZENGZHANG4.3%。

  YIXIEHUAERJIERENSHIYUJI,GONGZIHETONGZHANGSHUJUJIANGKAISHIYINQIMEILIANCHUGUANYUANDEGONGMING。HUAQIJITUANJINGJIXUEJIAAndrew HollenhorstZAIYIFENFENXIDANGQIANJIUYEXINGSHIDEBAOGAOZHONGXIEDAO:“5.2%DESHIYELVHEKUAISUSHANGZHANGDEGONGZIBIAOMING,TONGZHANGYALIZHENGZAIJIJU,ZUIZHONGJIANGDAOZHIGENGQIANGYINGDEZHENGCE。”

  JINGUANMEILIANCHUGUANYUANZHUYAOTAOLUNGONGZIZONGEDEZENGZHANG,DANHollenhorstYUJI,“ZHEIZHONGLUNDIAOJIANGYOUSUOGAIBIAN,HUOXUZAI9YUEFENDEYIXIHUIYISHANG,MEILIANCHUGUANYUANMENJIANGGENGDUODIGUANZHUWEIYUGAOWEIDEZHIWEIKONGQUESHULIANGHEGONGZIZENGZHANG。”

  MEILIANCHUZHUXIBAOWEIER8YUEZAIJIEKEXUNHUOERQUANQIUYANGXINGNIANHUISHANGFABIAOJIANGHUASHI,CENGJILIDAXIAOSHICHANGDUIXINZIYALIHEZHENGTITONGZHANGBUDUANSHANGSHENGDEDANYOU。TAQIANGDIAO,“MUQIANWOMENJIHUMEIYOUKANDAOGONGZIZENGZHANGDEGUODUFENGXIAN。”

  SHISHISHANG,MEILIANCHUGUANYUANMENZHIJINYIZHIJIANGTONGZHANGSHUJUSHANGSHENGGUIYINYUGONGYINGWENTI,JIGONGZIDECHIXUSHANGZHANGKENENGBIAOMINGXUQIUZHENGZAICHENGWEIYIGEYINSU。

  YECUNZHENGQUANSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIARob SubbaramanZHICHU,“DANGHENNANQUFENXUQIUHEGONGYINGYINGXIANGSHI,JIAGEXINHAOZAIPINGGUGUODUXUQIUDECHENGDUFANGMIANBIANDEGENGWEIZHONGYAO。”

  MUDIFENXISHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAMark ZandiRENWEI,MEILIANCHUMUQIANJIANGYUNXUGONGZISHANGZHANG。“ZHEIBINGBUYIWEIZHETAMENDUIZHEIGEWENTIBUXIEYIGU。ZHEISHITAMENKAOLVGENGGUANGFANTONGZHANGYALIDEYIGEYINSU。DANJIEZHIMUQIAN,TAMENHUIRENWEI,TAMENGUANCHADAODEGONGZIZENGZHANGGENGDUODESHIYIZHONGGONGNENG,ERBUSHIYIGELOUDONG。”

  美联储或将于今年内开始退出QE

  JINGUAN8YUEFEINONGJIUYEBAOGAOBIAOXIANPIRUAN,DANSHIMEILIANCHUHUOJIANGYUJINNIANNIANDIQIANKAISHISUOJIANGOUZHAIGUIMO。DentZHICHU,LAODONGLIGONGYINGXIANZHIZHENGZAIXIAOTUI,ERSHICHANGYINGHUIZAI 2022NIANMOHUO2023NIANCHUZHIQIANSHIXIANCHONGFENJIUYE。MIANDUIGAOYUMUBIAODETONGZHANGLVHELAODONGLISHICHANGDESHITAI,MEILIANCHUYIJIANGZHONGDIANZHUANXIANGJINSHENDITUICHUKUANSONGZHENGCE。

  DUOWEIMEILIANCHUGUANYUANYETOULULEZHICHIJINNIANKAISHISUOJIANGOUZHAIGUIMODEXINHAO。SHENGLUYISILIANCHUZHUXIJames BullardYU9RIZAOXIESHIHOUBIAOSHI,JINGUAN8YUEFEINONGJIUYEBAOGAOBIAOXIANPIRUO,DANTAYUJIJINNIANJIANGKAISHISUOJIANGOUZHAIGUIMO。

  BullardBOCHILEGUANYULAODONGLISHICHANGFUSUBULVPANSHANDEDANYOU,JINGUANMEIGUOJINGJI8YUECHUANGZAOLE7GEYUEYILAIZUIDIDEJIUYEGANGWEI。TAZHICHU,“QIYEDUILAODONGLIDEXUQIUHENDA,ZHIWEIKONGQUEBISHIYEDERENSHUDUO。”

  BullardBUCHONGCHENG,“RUGUOWOMENNENGRANGGUZHUYUGUYUANHUXIANGPIPEI,BINGGENGHAODIKONGZHIYIQING,NEIMEMINGNIANJIUYESHICHANGKENDINGHUIBIAOXIANFEICHANGQIANGJING。”

  BullardRENWEI,“SUOJIANGOUZHAIGUIMOJIANGYUJINNIANKAISHI,BINGJIANGZAIMINGNIANSHANGBANNIANMOUGESHIHOUJIESHU。”

  DALASILIANCHUZHUXIRobert KaplanRENWEI,JINGUAN8YUEFEINONGJIUYESHUJUBURUYUQI,DANTARENGZHICHIJINZAOTOULUSUOJIANZICHANGOUMAIJIHUADEXINHAO。

  KaplanZHICHU,8YUEFEINONGJIUYESHUJUPIRUAN,ZHUYAOSHIYOUYUDeltaBIANYIDUZHULINGXINGUANFEIYANQUEZHENBINGLISHANGSHENG,DUIXIUXIANFUWUXINGYEYINGXIANGJIAOWEIYANZHONG,DAOZHIDISANJIDUJINGJIZENGSUFANGHUAN。

  TAYUJI,9YUEFEINONGJIUYESHUJUYEBUHUITAILINGRENMANYI,DANDAODISIJIDUHUIYOUSUOGAISHAN,JIESHIJINGJIFUSUJIANGJIAKUAI,JIUYERENSHUYEHUISHANGZHANG。“JINGJIFUSUBUHUIYICUERJIU,ERSHISHIDUANSHIXU。WOMENZHENGCHUYUFUSUFANGHUANZHEIYIJIEDUAN。”

  KaplanCHENG,MEIGUOJINGJICHIXUFUSUZHEIYIQIANJINGBINGMEIYOUFASHENGGENBENXINGBIANHUA。YINCI,TAZHUZHANGMEILIANCHUZAI9YUEHUOSHI10YUEDEYIXIHUIYISHANGXUANBUDIAOZHENGGOUZHAIJIHUA,RANHOUKAISHIXINGDONG。

  9YUE9RI,NIUYUELIANCHUZHUXIJohn WilliamsCHENG,YUJIMEILIANCHUJIANGYUJINNIANNIANNEISHIFANGSUOJIANGOUZHAIGUIMODEXINHAO。“JIASHEJINGJIXIANGWOYUQIDENEIYANGJIXUGAISHAN,JINNIANKAISHIFANGMANZICHANGOUMAIDEBUFAKENENGSHIHESHIDE。”

  TABUCHONGDAO,“ZAISHIXIANCHONGFENJIUYEFANGMIANYEQUDELEFEICHANGHAODEJINZHAN。DANSHI,ZAIXUANBUQUDEJINYIBUSHIZHIXINGJINZHANZHIQIAN,WOXIWANGKANDAOGENGDUOGAISHAN。”

  BUGUO,WilliamsMEIYOUJICHURENHEJUTIDESHUJU,ERSHIQIANGDIAOZHUANZHUYUDADAO“SHIZHIXING”JINZHANDEMENJIAN。YINCI,FENXIRENWEI,TABUHUIZHICHIMEILIANCHUZAILIANGZHOUHOUDE9YUEYIXIHUIYISHANGZHENGSHIXUANBUSUOJIANGOUZHAIGUIMO。

  WilliamsYUJI,JINGUANSHOUJINHUOBIZHENGCEZAIJI,DANSHIJULIMEILIANCHUJIAXIRENGYOU“HENZHANGDELUYAOZOU”。

  DentYUJI,MEILIANCHUHUIYOUGENGDUOBIANHUADEXINHAOSHIFANGCHULAI,YIBANGZHUSHICHANGWEINIANDIXUANBUSUOJIANGOUZHAIJIHUAZUOHAOZHUNBEI。“WOMENYUQISUOJIANGOUZHAIJIHUAJIANGZAI2022NIANDISIJIDUJIESHU。”ERQIEMEILIANCHUKENENGCONG2023NIANDIERJIDUKAISHIJIAXI,MEIBANNIANJIAXI25GEJIDIAN,ZUIZHONGDADAO2%ZHI2.25%DELILVSHUIPING。(ZUOZHE:SHISHI BIANJI:CHENQINGMEI)

(编辑:付健青)
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